quantwala

THE PUBLIC RESEARCH NOTE · 12 OCTOBER 2026

Three popular rules.
Did any survive the test?

We tested three fixed RELIANCE systems on the same history. All three lost money. Here are the rules, costs and trades—before you create an account.

Inspect the results ↓

Trend following on RELIANCE

4 Oct 2023–9 Oct 2026 · 690 evaluated sessions after 60 warmup bars

Before charges-2.43%
After charges-2.99%
Trading charges₹556.6
Max drawdown5.36%
4 Oct 20239 Oct 2026
Portfolio equity after estimated charges and slippage. Vertical scale ₹95,600.23–₹1,01,248.19.

A 20/50 EMA cross entered after a trend formed. Six of seven completed trades lost. Charges worsened a signal that was already negative.

Ending equity: ₹97,009.7 from ₹1,00,000. Completed trades: 7.

Rules and execution assumptions

Backtest RELIANCE using trend following with these exact rules: 20/50 EMA crossover. Use daily bars, ₹1,00,000 capital, 30% allocation, a 5% stop loss, a 12% take-profit and 2 bps slippage per fill. Include charges, drawdown and every trade. Show failures. Use 750 loaded daily bars and state the actual dates; a fresh run may differ from the frozen public sample.

Long-only NSE delivery; Zerodha retail charges at the currently implemented schedule. Next-bar simulated execution; conservative intrabar protection. Daily adjusted prices exclude dividends. Slippage is already included in simulated prices; “before charges” still includes slippage. Only completed sessions were captured.

Download the exact strategy code · Full methodology
Later-period check: insufficient evidence

Fixed 70/30 chronological split on loaded history. This data has already been inspected; it is not untouched validation. Split: 20 Nov 2025.

Later period 20 Nov 2025–9 Oct 2026: -1.52% after charges, 1 trades. At 10 bps slippage: -1.52%.

  • enough validation trades
  • positive later period net return
  • positive under slippage stress
Every completed trade · 7
EntryExitSharesGross P&LChargesNet P&L
24 May 20244 Jun 202420₹-1,484₹79.84₹-1,563.84
10 Jun 20249 Aug 202420₹-211₹80.55₹-291.55
2 Sept 202410 Sept 202419₹-969₹78.21₹-1,047.21
26 Mar 20254 Apr 202522₹-1,420.1₹77.07₹-1,497.17
23 Apr 202515 May 202522₹3,425.4₹82.39₹3,343.01
23 Oct 202516 Jan 202620₹-336₹80.66₹-416.66
7 May 202612 May 202620₹-1,439₹77.88₹-1,516.88

Test your own idea.

Keep a failure visible. Change the hypothesis deliberately, then observe it on future paper sessions.

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Reproduce it. Don’t take our word for it.

Three fixed rules run once on the same 750 completed daily bars. No parameter search. The 70/30 audit is descriptive, not untouched validation; these prices have already been inspected. Freeze your inputs when comparing results. A new run on updated prices can differ.

Download all three results · Download the frozen price snapshot
Snapshot fingerprintd74efe41ac006b26bfe8ae8085da7cb15dcec1e3583409e974da2696eff97cea

Captured 2026-10-12T06:14:47.443746+00:00. The source snapshot lists its provider. Rates applied are current engine schedules, not reconstructed historic schedules.

Historical simulations are not forecasts or investment advice. None of these candidates has demonstrated an edge in this experiment.